As others have pointed out, WinRM is enabled but it is rejecting the user you are trying to connect with. This can be due to numerous reasons but here are the most common ones
The username or password is incorrect
Basic auth is not enabled on the WinRM side, need to run Set-Item -Path WSMan:\localhost\Service\Auth\Basic -Value $true
The account is not an administrator or does not have permission on the WinRM endpoint, see the post above for how to configure this
You are connecting over http but don’t have message encryption, this won’t be the case as you are running over HTTPS
Using a domain account over basic auth, I see you are using SSL (basic over TLS) and are on the home edition so this won’t be it
Without more detail from yourself, such as the account you are trying to connect with, the output of winrm get winrm/config/service and your group_vars set (sans the password) there is not too much we can do.